In an AI-captivated world, the new buzz might be copper, concrete, and jet fuel – rather than code.

The Return of the Boring Winners

Over the past decade, financial markets have massively rewarded companies that were scalable, digital, and innovative. Software companies dominated investing and venture capital funding, and business models requiring minimal physical infrastructure were glorified.

But in early 2026, a new investment theme began to emerge, one which emphasizes mature, tangible assets with defenses against replaceability — HALO trades.

Coined by Ritholtz Wealth Management CEO Josh Brown in February 2026, the term “HALO” is short for “hard/heavy assets, low obsolescence” and applies to companies with two key attributes: significant physical infrastructure and business models unlikely to be replaced by new technology. Capital-intensive companies (“heavy assets”) who remain relevant across innovation cycles (“low obsolescence”) possess the durability and barriers to disruption that investors value in times of uncertainty.

Although the AI boom has stimulated the economy, widespread concerns about overinvestment in infrastructure and software valuation bubbles , and the AI disruption of various business models are forcing investors to seek out real durability.

AI enthusiasm is gradually morphing into skepticism. Once “boring” sectors such as energy, transportation, and industrials are drawing eyeballs once again.

Delta vs Expedia: A Case Study in Travel

The essence of HALO is illuminated through comparing Delta Airlines and Expedia — two companies in the same sector going in different directions.

Two Businesses, One Industry

Expedia is an asset-light online travel agency that connects customers with hotels, airlines, and other travel services. Delta Airlines, an asset-heavy operator, owns and operates aircraft, airport infrastructure, and global route networks.

Running an airline company requires billions in capital expenditure and physical infrastructure, while Expedia mostly relies on intangible technology. In the digital age, investors typically favor the latter.

The HALO Reversal

HALO completely flips that logic. In an AI-permeated world, investors now view Delta’s vast physical infrastructure as an advantage, not a liability. Expedia and Delta share prices, though historically seen as travel industry benchmarks – have diverged sharply over the past year. As of May 2026, Delta stock has outperformed Expedia’s by 14 percentage-points year-to-date.

This exemplifies a broader market theme: the reevaluation of physical-asset companies that were once overshadowed by tech. Delta operates actual planes that physically transport consumers, while Expedia is a service replicable by bots, underlying the push towards a structural shift.

Wall Street’s View

Institutional Recognition

In March 2026, analysts at Goldman Sachs highlighted their own view on the “HALO effect” – growing preferences for companies with durable physical assets and longer investment cycles.

Under their framework, HALO companies are high-capital, infrastructure-intensive, and persistent relevance across technological shifts. Examples include energy producers, utilities, logistics, and large retailers. These businesses are especially attractive during times of supply chain uncertainty.

End of an Era?

Analysts also note that HALO trades constitute a significant reversal from narratives of the 21st century. Since the 2008 financial crisis — which hit large, tangible asset classes particularly hard — investors have overwhelmingly favored asset-light, predominantly digital companies that appear more capital efficient. The spread of artificial intelligence is narrowing that advantage.

Generative AI can replicate digital platforms in the blink of an eye, compressing software companies' profit margins. Constructing a pipeline or refinery still requires years of investment and regulatory approval. Reports even indicate that portfolios composed of capital-intensive firms have outperformed their asset-light counterparts over the past year. HALO investments increasingly appear like strategic bets against technological disruption.

A Fragile Foundation

While HALO investors often tout their stability, the war with Iran has exposed a major vulnerability: energy dependence.

The Hormuz Chokepoint

Since late February 2026, conflict between the US, Iran, and Israel has led to an effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy bottlenecks.

Only 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, the Strait of Hormuz transits over 20 million barrels of oil every day – one-fifth of global supply. But since the conflict has escalated, Iran has attacked and blocked off the strait, causing maritime traffic disruptions and leaving hundreds of ships stranded outside the Persian Gulf.

We Still Run on Oil

The result has been a surge in energy prices. Crude has risen from $70 to well above $100 per barrel, and analysts warn that prolonged disruptions may produce the largest oil shock since the 1970s. For financial markets, implications extend beyond just the energy industry.

Manufacturing requires large quantities of natural gas. Mining and machinery operate on diesel fuel. Airlines depend on jet fuel while global shipping requires bunker fuel to transport goods internationally. When oil prices and fuel markets spike, the cost of these operations increases dramatically, compressing operating margins and revealing the vulnerability.

The Iranian conflict underscores an important element of the HALO thesis. Investors are increasingly attracted to companies resistant to digital change. But the same systems that lend them durability also calcify their dependence on global supply chains.

Conclusion

The HALO trade certainly turns on resilience, recognizing physical assets for their durability against technological disruption. But for captivated investors, this creates a paradox: safe havens from technological disruption remain sensitive to geopolitics., The HALO trade is not a retreat from risk, but rather trades one for another – and the chokepoint of energy in the Middle East reminds us that even the safest physical assets are only as stable as the systems that power them in the first place.

Take-Home Points

  • HALO trades favor hard and durable assets over asset-light digital infrastructure
  • Investors may be starting to see physical infrastructure as more defensible than easily replicated software
  • Delta outperforming Expedia exemplifies a market shift toward tangible assets
  • Wall Street has noted HALO firms benefiting from infrastructure and regulatory barriers
  • HALO assets may resist AI disruption but still remain vulnerable to energy and geopolitical shocks